There’s a critical date coming: April 15, the deadline for tax returns for most of the American taxpayers. Most of them are monitoring the progress of their tax refunds. Despite staff cuts at the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) and rumors about a possible government shutdown, operations have maintained a stable pace until mid-March.
As of March 7, the IRS has processed 43.6 million refunds, totaling $145,063 million, according to official data. This represents an increase of 7.2% compared to the previous year, with an additional 3,324 million dollars, which is equivalent to 5.7% more.
Are delays expected in tax refunds?
However, tax professionals warn that pressure on the IRS could intensify in the coming weeks. Tom O’Saben, head of the National Association of Tax Professionals, said: “I hope that won’t be the case as volume increases here in the last 30 days of the season.”
So far, no widespread delays in returns have been reported, as long as returns are filed electronically and without errors. However, the 2.1% reduction in total returns processed and the 44% drop in visits to IRS.gov raise questions about efficiency in the final stretch of the season.
DOGE cuts at the IRS: refunds could be affected
The uncertainty is compounded by IRS employee layoffs in late February and initial plans by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) to terminate leases at dozens of local offices. Although some closures were reversed, experts like Jim Simpson, an accountant in Arizona, warn of operational risks: “This is going to cause more chaos […]. It should be done surgically and not with a chainsaw.”
According to an anonymous source cited by the Associated Press, DOGE’s plans to cancel leases at taxpayer assistance centers were erroneous and suspended. However, the department’s updated list still includes multiple locations marked for closure, causing confusion among officials and citizens.
Given this scenario, Martin Smith, a tax specialist we consult, insists on electronic filing as a priority method: “If you send a paper return, at least someone from the IRS has to be there to open the envelope […]. We saw in the pandemic that that is not done when they are very late.” The IRS has reiterated that in the event of a government shutdown, it would have essential personnel to maintain critical operations for at least five days.
Despite the challenges, the agency has managed to avoid significant delays, even after the first wave of layoffs. The $135.281 million in refunds processed in 2024 contrasts with the $145.063 million issued this year, reflecting an increase in individual amounts. However, experts note that these figures could be adjusted as late returns are processed.
One notable trend is the decline in early repayments, which typically account for a third of the annual total. Factors such as regulatory changes, greater complexity in the forms or institutional distrust could be influencing this variation, although the IRS has not commented on the matter.
