The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) has estimated that the cost of living adjustment (COLA) for 2026 will reach 2.2%, according to its most recent statistical model. At the same time, the Social Security Administration (SSA) will implement a strict policy to recover overpayments, affecting beneficiaries starting March 27.
TSCL’s modeling indicates that the COLA for 2026 will be 2.2%, based on current economic data. This follows a report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics that noted a drop in the Consumer Price Index (CPI-W) to 2.7% in February, down from 3.0% in January. The projected adjustment exceeds the 2025 COLA by 0.3 percentage points, which was 2.5%.
Yes, the Social Security payments will increase… but, how much?
If CPI-W data from the last three months were used, the COLA for 2026 would be 2.8%, according to TSCL. However, this figure is 1.1 percentage points below the average for the 2020s, which reached 3.9%. These numbers reflect inflationary trends that impact the purchasing power of beneficiaries.
The Trump administration has introduced a new measure for the SSA to recoup overpayments of benefits. Starting March 27, beneficiaries who received additional funds in error will face a withholding of 100% of their future benefits until the debt is repaid, reversing a previous rule that limited the deduction to the greater of 10% or $10.
Between fiscal years 2017 and 2023, the SSA collected an annual average of $4.2 billion in overpayments, while maintaining an outstanding balance of $22.8 billion, according to its financial reports. The new policy will apply only to overpayments after the start date, intensifying recovery efforts.
The impact of the Social Security increments for retirees
A TSCL analysis suggests that if the government recovered the entire balance of overpayments in a typical year, it could distribute a check of approximately $495 to beneficiaries. Additionally, if the recovered funds were reinvested as a dividend, benefits would increase by an average of $77 annually, according to the organization’s calculations.
Currently, beneficiaries have 30 days after notification of an overpayment to return the money before the hold begins. The Social Security Overpayment Act, not passed in the previous Congress, proposed extending this period to 120 days, a measure that TSCL considers necessary to alleviate the financial burden.
Shannon Benton, CEO of TSCL, said, “While the Senior Citizens League (TSCL) believes that overpayments of Social Security benefits should be restored, we believe it is important that recipients not face undue pressure for an immediate 100 percent reduction in benefits.” TSCL pleaded for extension of the recovery period.
The full recovery of benefits can especially impact those who depend exclusively on these funds. Many beneficiaries may not detect overpayments in time, facing sudden cuts to their income. TSCL has urged Congress to reconsider measures such as the Overpayment Law to ensure greater fairness.
