Although the official announcement of Social Security’s 2025 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) is still some time away, being aware of current estimates can help beneficiaries better plan for retirement and know how to cope with inflation.
The estimated projections help to see what the outlook is for next year, regarding how much the benefits of retirees and other Social Security beneficiaries will increase. This figure may change in the coming months, but income preparation and diversification can provide greater financial stability and peace of mind.
October is always a crucial month for Social Security beneficiaries in the United States, as the Social Security Administration (SSA) announces the cost of living adjustment (COLA) for next year. This adjustment determines how much the monthly benefits received by millions of retirees and people with disabilities will increase.
The 2023 COLA: How Much Was It?
In 2023, Social Security beneficiaries experienced quite significant growth, which was 8.7% in their payments, the largest increase in decades.
However, the 2024 COLA was considerably lower, standing at a modest 3.2%. With inflation persistent, many beneficiaries are eager to know the adjustment expected for 2025.
Initial projections and new estimates of the Social Security COLA
Earlier this year, the nonpartisan Senior Citizens League (TSCL) estimated that the COLA for 2025 would be 1.75%. This projection was later revised upwards, reaching 2.6%.
In mid-May, and based on new inflation data, TSCL slightly adjusted this estimate to 2.66%, a very small increase compared to those other primary projections.
Although this figure represents an improvement over initial forecasts, it is still lower than the most recent increases. However, it is important to remember that this figure is only a preliminary projection. The final adjustment will be announced in October, once the SSA has access to inflation data for the third quarter of 2024.
Historical Records of Social Security COLA Adjustments
| Year | COLA (%) |
| 1975 | 8.0 |
| 1976 | 6.4 |
| 1977 | 5.9 |
| 1978 | 6.5 |
| 1979 | 9.9 |
| 1980 | 14.3 |
| 1981 | 11.2 |
| 1982 | 7.4 |
| 1983 | 3.5 |
| 1984 | 3.5 |
| 1985 | 3.1 |
| 1986 | 1.3 |
| 1987 | 4.2 |
| 1988 | 4.0 |
| 1989 | 4.7 |
| 1990 | 5.4 |
| 1991 | 3.7 |
| 1992 | 3.0 |
| 1993 | 2.6 |
| 1994 | 2.8 |
| 1995 | 2.6 |
| 1996 | 2.9 |
| 1997 | 2.1 |
| 1998 | 1.3 |
| 1999 | 2.5 |
| 2000 | 3.5 |
| 2001 | 2.6 |
| 2002 | 1.4 |
| 2003 | 2.1 |
| 2004 | 2.7 |
| 2005 | 4.1 |
| 2006 | 3.3 |
| 2007 | 2.3 |
| 2008 | 5.8 |
| 2009 | 0.0 |
| 2010 | 0.0 |
| 2011 | 3.6 |
| 2012 | 1.7 |
| 2013 | 1.5 |
| 2014 | 1.7 |
| 2015 | 1.5 |
| 2016 | 0.0 |
| 2017 | 0.3 |
| 2018 | 2.0 |
| 2019 | 2.8 |
| 2020 | 1.6 |
| 2021 | 1.3 |
| 2022 | 5.9 |
| 2023 | 8.7 |
| 2024 | 3.2 |
