The “DOGE dividends”, a type of stimulus checks, have generated attention after the support of former President Donald Trump and Elon Musk, director of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). It is a proposal that many have looked forward to because it could give millions of qualifying households several thousand dollars in a one-time check, and could stimulate the economy, just like other stimulus checks in recent years.
The proposal, masterminded by James Fishback, CEO of Azoria, proposes returning 20% of DOGE savings (estimated at $2 billion) to taxpayers through direct paper check payments of $5,000 per eligible household. Fishback detailed the initiative in a four-page document, cited by Forbes, inspired by a dream and initially published on X.com.
The plan suggests distributing the funds after July 2026, using only savings from the program. Trump declared at the FII Priority summit in Miami Beach that the project is “under consideration,” allocating another 20% to reducing the national debt.
Are DOGE dividends the same as stimulus checks?
Although compared to pandemic checks, “DOGE dividends” differ in objective. While the former sought to reactivate the economy, these are defined as tax refunds. Experts we consulted actually called them “stimulus checks”, but others warn of inflationary risks, marking a division between those who see them as populism and those as fiscal relief.
Preliminary calculations say the proposed payment is $5,000 per household, but only for net-positive taxpayers: the latter has already sparked discussions because it would leave millions of low-income households out.
Some economists have pointed out that households with incomes under $40,000 would be excluded, receiving more credits than they paid. Data from the Pew Research Center shows that in 2020, those earning less than $30,000 had an effective rate of 1.5%. $78.6 billion in refunds were issued.
Households that would qualify for the DOGE dividend
Let’s start by talking about the income level of households that may or may not qualify, and it is measured by the income level, known as AGI. Households with AGI ≤$30,000 had an effective rate of -14.8% after credits in 2020, due to COVID-19 relief. This reinforces the exclusion of low incomes in the “DOGE dividends”, generating discussions about equity.
Analysts at Forbes see potential for middle-class homes, while Mashable warns of possible inflation. The exclusion of the most vulnerable, discussed on NBC News, adds tensions since these stimulus checks would be converted into a payment for high-income households that would not really need it. Trump and Musk defend the plan, but its viability depends on Congress and the real DOGE savings, not yet realized.
To date, there is no legislative progress: this payment should go through Congress and not even a bill has yet been submitted.
