“Stimulus checks” and “DOGE dividends” are words that have been floating around social media and discussion forums in recent weeks, but perhaps less research has been done on the matter than we Americans would like. Well, we already know the stimulus checks, they are payments that help stimulate the economy (they are non-refundable) and were of vital importance for millions of Americans during the coronavirus pandemic.
But the new DOGE dividends, which are talked about so much these days, are a proposal that was made to the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), established on January 20, 2025 under the second administration of Donald Trump, led by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy. The “dividends” idea, floated by James Fishback, CEO of an investment firm, proposes returning 20% of those savings to American taxpayers in the form of $5,000 checks per household.
79 million households would be eligible to receive DOGE dividends
It is estimated that DOGE could save $2 billion in 18 months, if its cuts continue to produce the results that Musk and Trump are carrying out. Of this amount, 20%, equivalent to $400 billion, would be distributed among 79 million tax-paying households, resulting in approximately $5,000 per household.
Trump has shown support for this idea in speeches, suggesting returning 20% of savings to citizens, while Musk has responded positively to the proposal in public interactions, but not much more information has been given to Americans.
Eligibility criteria: Who could receive these stimulus checks?
A key aspect is that the checks would go only to households considered “net payers” of federal income taxes, that is, those who pay more in taxes than they receive in federal benefits.
This excludes most low-income Americans, particularly those who earn less than $40,000 a year, since they generally pay no federal income taxes after deductions and credits. For example, households in the bottom 40% of income typically have a negative effective tax rate (-10.3%), meaning they receive more in refundable credits than they pay.
In contrast, households in the top 60%, with incomes generally above $47,000, would be the most likely to qualify. Fishback argues that this restriction helps reduce the risk of inflation, as low-income households tend to spend more.
The DOGE Dividends could actually be smaller
As we have said, this potential stimulus payment program could be compared to the checks sent during the first administration of Donald Trump and part of the government of Joe Biden, during the period of the coronavirus pandemic. Other specialists have drawn a parallel with Alaska’s Permanent Fund Dividend program, which distributes profits from oil exploitation among the state’s permanent residents.
Now, if the savings achieved by Musk’s DOGE are as planned, the check should be about $5,000 per family, but if they are less, some calculations say that only about $1,250 or $2,500 could be distributed per eligible family.
Figures like Senator Josh Hawley support the concept, but prefer to direct savings to a Child Tax Credit, while others, such as Senator Ted Cruz, seek more details. House Speaker Mike Johnson has expressed skepticism, reflecting concerns about fiscal responsibility.
